Estate Market pulse

It is final that he has won the election in a landslide in all four areas: electoral votes, popular votes, the Senate, and the House (It is confirmed as at 12/11/24 Malaysia time: DecisionDeskHQ). A “trifecta” won.

Two reactions have been seen from the last 48 hours: those who are surprised by the sweeping results and those who take it in an expected, ‘no-brainer’ manner. How weird the world we are living in now.

What is sure to happen is:
(1) the crushing of confidence in conventional polls,
(2) the emergence of prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.

The former has wrongly captured the election sentiment for the third time in a row (2016, 2020 & 2024), while the latter has time and again provided stunningly accurate results.

What next for the new administration? Here are my predictions:

1. Drill, baby, drill: The U.S. fracking business is going to kickstart soon, increasing the oil supply in the market. The Middle East oil market will see real competition, and as end consumers, cheap oil is all that matters, which would gradually lower or at least tame the prolong inflation.
2. Illegal Immigration: There will be a massive move to deport illegal immigrants. One of the main reasons for voting for Trump is to secure the borders, ultimately reducing crime rates and improving the overall well-being of Americans.
3. Tariffs: Under the MAGA (Make America Great Again) motto, the U.S. is going to look more inward at least in the short term. His move to reduce and even propose abolishing Personal Income Tax is only possible with either the expansion of the U.S. economy or, more likely, a large increase in tariffs. This is not good for world trade in the long term.
4. Social Policies: Although this does not have a direct impact on foreigners like us, his administration is expected to do some “clean-up work” regarding far-left liberal ideologies. He has been very vocal against them and has pledged to “defend American tradition and Western civilization.” So, things like DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) and woke culture, among others, might become less appealing now. All I’m hoping for is that Hollywood will focus again on making better movies and TV series in the future.
5. Palestine War, Ukraine War, etc.: He has publicly said he will work to end the wars when elected. It sounds good, but these wars are in a deep shithole now. We’ll have to wait and see.
6. International Relationships – On China and Russia: This is very much related to point number 5. We’ll have to wait to see how it unfolds.
7. Last but not least, the end of mainstream media and the emergence of new media formats: Just look at what happened one month before the elections on the podcast media scene, especially in the last week on Joe Rogan’s podcast. It is CRAZY!!! Honorable mention goes to the role of the free speech platform, X (Elon Musk). It is crystal clear that many US voters are abandoning mainstream media (legacy media) in favor of this upcoming new chapter in media.

Personally, I expect the new administration to focus more on domestic issues for at least the first two years, until the midterm elections. Trump’s major advantage now is that he controls both the Senate and the House, in other words a free-hand, which is crucial for passing important policies. His election campaign focused on fixing current internal problems, and this election has demonstrated that he has the mandate from Americans to proceed with his agenda.