This is the most intense US presidential election I have ever followed and remembered. The stake is too much for both side but who is going to win?
Forget about the polls which are getting out of tune nowadays (I suspect major sampling flaw and lukewarm responses from the traditional phone-in poll). Follow the money!
Most conventional polls show narrow margins (as low as 2%) tilted toward Trump, occasionally Kamala. However, an overwhelming result from betting markets reveals a vast difference, almost like it’s from another universe. For example:
Here for real time data. Disclaimer: I am not here to promote gambling but to show how people place their odds on the coming election.
Apart from the betting market, also pay attention to the U.S. stock markets, especially at policy-sensitive industries, such as pro-Trump sectors (fracking, oil and gas) and pro-Kamala industries (green and clean energy, healthcare). Some have already started pricing in as the election draws closer.
Generally, the higher Trump’s odds, the more favorable the overall market response across stocks, cryptocurrency, and even precious metals. Is the market more optimistic about a Trump win? It certainly seems so.
Verdict: A Trump win is almost imminent.
Leave a Reply